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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 14, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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and the nasdaq down 37 points. that will do it for "closing bell" for me for today. i'll see you tomorrow. you can always follow me on twitter and google plus. don't miss our special program tomorrow we are live with alan simpson. "fast money" begins right now. have a great night. i will see you tomorrow. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. starbucks strikes a deal. starbucks ceo joins us first on "fast money." is apple the new coke? a top rated analyst weighs in on why you think it might be the time to cash in on the most
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popular stock. we told you how to trade it last night so what should we be doing right now? we have to get to the market. we raised 1,000 points in the dow in just a the past month. and the nasdaq down 10%. what exactly is dragging the market lower? even though the loss is accelerated his first news conference since being reelected do you think it is something other than -- >> when you call me by my full name it's like i'm in trouble. >> what is it in. >> it is a great explanation. it makes for great headlines. there is a slow down in earnings that we have seen every day. there is a deteriorating situation in europe. i think it seems to be germany and france getting dragged into this thing. you have geopolitical risks.
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there are a number of reasons that the market is going lower not least of which is a technical break that we have talked about on the show hundreds of times. the fiscal cliff is interesting. that is just sort of the tip of the iceberg with what is going on. >> i think also the technical story is awful. i would concentrate on eu lowest in three years. federal housing authority may run out of money. these are the things people are hearing in the background. i have to under score that today's press conference tells people this is the same old movie with the same actors and people are scared to death. i don't think earnings have been that bad. i don't think the world is falling apart. i think sentiment is falling apart and investors have stepped away from the table at a time when they were looking to do the opposite. >> not to defend guy christopher but i understand your point
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about cisco and home depot. if you look overall in terms of revenue growth and profit growth we are nowhere where we were last year. the slow down is marked if you look stats. compare that to 11.44%. 2.3% profit growth this year versus almost 18% last year. we have to take a broader look at the market. there are always stock specific exceptions and examples of good earnings and bad earnings growth. >> i'll tell you what the problem is. i agree with guy christopher that there is a bigger issue here and people are pulling money out of the capital markets. we had a big drop in the dow and s&p. yet bonds were almost flat. people weren't going into other places. you look at brazil down almost 2%. people are putting their money
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under the mattress. that is more of a problem on any type of a rally if we get one because the fire power isn't there. people have thrown the towel in. >> i thought today was a lot of different things going on. it was more of the middle east. if you look at oil being up normally on a day like today you would have expected to see a pretty big hit. i didn't see it at all. that is something i feel wasn't factored in so much. with the market being down a thousand points i'm looking to buy stuff. for example a name i really like i believe in the turn around of the housing situation. i'm looking for things to buy. next on my list is jp morgan. >> what is your middle name? >> christopher. >> funny. we brought out the big guns.
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what did you make of the sellout? >> i think everybody here nailed it and that it is sentiment and there is a sfred pread of this contagion. sentiment has a contagion effect too. that is why what happens here can badly effect what happens in europe and elsewhere. i thought and wrote yesterday it is like two people dueling on a burning ship and they have got to get off the ship and can't push this right up until the edge. by the time we get to the fiscal cliff we could shave two or three thousand points off the dow. that is a dangerous thing that is going to hurt confidence. people will hoard more money. customers will pull their money out of funds and put it into mattresses. that is not what we want but
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that is what will happen unless these politicians, i'm not singling out one guy, unless the politicians get together. >> it seems like the cliff is a multiplier. >> we put up stats about how revenue was lower than last year. you have to make decisions years in advance. you can't decide in the last couple of weeks to close down or open up a factory or hire 10,000 people. companies have been doing this for the whole year. that is why you are seeing revenues and earnings down. >> should you be looking for value as we reach the fiscal cliff? mun emanagers discussing that question. let's bring in dan okeefe. good to have you with us. >> good to be here. thank you. >> are you buying what the s&p 500 lowest two-day moving average in correction territory?
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>> we have started to buy securities again with this recent down draft. for a while we were net sellers. >> does the cliff factor into this decision at all? >> you know, it does and it doesn't. i mean, it clearly the worst case outcome will have an impact on the economy but we have no ability to predict how it will get resolved. if you put yourself back four or five years ago we had a number of other economic issues we had to deal with. instead of worrying how is it going to happen we say to ourselves commerce marches forward five years from now corporations will be earning higher revenues and profits than today. forget about the noise and put your money to work.
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>> you reside over an international and global fund. give us names outside of this picture that you are excited about. more than 50% of the growth is in em. tell us what story is not so bleak. >> i mean, we have owned it for more than ten years. we love the business and we think it will continue to grow. it is growing in north america and in emerging markets. and i think it will continue to grow over the next ten years. the valuation here is reasonbly attractive. we would be focusing now with the weakness on more cyclical businesses. we have been buying a great company based here in the u.s. its earnings are going to take a cyclical dip this year most likely as a result of europe. it has a great balance sheet and trading about ten times
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earnings. people are afraid to own it right now. >> we are going to leave it there. thanks for joining us. a name that dan had mentioned. >> we trade and talk about that from time to time. it had a nice run earlier this year. now it is trading 77.5. to me it seems it has a chance to trade to the lower 70s which i'm sure dan doesn't care about with a five-year time horizon. let's move on here. the unrest in the middle east and the impact on oil prices. take a look at this incredible video from gaza. israel launched an a air strike. crude immediately spiked. where do you put this? we know there are tensions
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between hamas and israel. >> i don't think so. i think this is a bigger issue than people made out today. we are used to that rhetoric but you are starting to see the rest of the middle east get involved. we saw egypt pull the ambassador from israel. and this is not the normalal lobbing missiles back and forth. this is something very different. i bought oil on this. i bought rent oil and that is the way to play it. >> what are other plays? >> i was surprised oil didn't give us more. this was a meager response when there is a box in syria and we are not seeing a bid to oil and commodities. cftc longs in the commodity space are three-month lows.
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copper is a space i want to sniff around. >> house speaker boehner is speaking responding to the president. >> united and focusing on their top priority which is jobs. i'm proud of my leadership colleagues who have been elected today to serve as our leaders of the next conference. while we have some of us returning to the leadership we have new members. and you will get to hear from them in a moment. our majority is a primary line of defense for the american people against the government that spends too much, borrows too much and left unchecked. i have outlined a framework for how both parties can work together to avert the fiscal cliff without raising tax rates and through a combination of tax reform and titlement reform we can bring jobs home and make our economy stronger. with so many challenges that are
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ahead of us the american people need to see us act courageously, think selflessly and lead boldly. our majority is up to the task. i expect the president is, as well. >> good afternoon. we went through a tough week last week as a party but clearly the house majority is intact and we are strong. i have never been prouder of my colleagues than i am for having stood strong for the things that we believe in. i'm especially proud of our colleague paul ryan that took the charge across the nation. >> we have been listening to a house press conference. house speaker john boehner kicked things off there. nothing directly in terms of commenting about what the president said today about wanting to raise the tax rates on the highest income earners.
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the american people need to see us act courageously and lead boldly and expects the president to do the same. >> the president didn't say much. the president was very vague. he didn't say anything about spending cuts and didn't talk about entitlements but just about doubling up the tax bigs. that sounds like a guy who is digging in. it doesn't sound constructive on a day when i thought the president was very aggressive and his tone did not send one conciliatory feel. >> sounds like stalemate. >> that's digging in your heels. i don't think that is particularly market bullish. >> not given the action we saw today. >> thanks for stopping by. it is time to set the record straight when it comes to net flex. how likely is a deal? our traders have answers.
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big lockup expiration brings a day of reckoning for facebook. telling you what to watch for. howard schultz gives us the details on the company's deal. it is another first on fast interview. stick around.
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facebook shares jumping despite the wave of stock hitting the market. if you were watching "fast money" last night you would have gotten pretty good advice. >> i think selling you see tomorrow is likely to buy more from a technical setup because of all of the pressure that they have had.
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>> the cost to borrow has decreased. it is a technical set up to buy this just for a little bit of a bounce. >> the stock surged 12% today. what is the trade now? let's bring in ceo and editor and chief. it's always good to see you. >> all of these shares hit the market. they can be sold. we could see the selling coming in future days. >> absolutely. it is a classic case of this couldn't be more telegraphed. that is what we thought and then peter teal decided to dump his stock. i wouldn't be surprised if a bunch of institutions came in here saying this is a chance to build a big position and take in all of the stock that was sold. >> 12%. what did you think that was attributed to? >> i think it has traded down in anticipation of this and from the prior lockup. the fundamentals are turning.
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they are at least bottoming in the last quarter with the mobile revenue starting to pick up. people seem to like the product. mark zuckerburg has changed his tone. before the ipo it was all about the product. now he is saying from the beginning we think about how we will make money from it. big changes at facebook. >> have you see the lows of the stock? >> i think facebook is in the middle of a multi year trading side ways compression process. even now trading at 35 times earnings. you look at it relative to google and apple which is well thought of fast growing tech companyatize is hard justify the price. >> what you are telling me effectively is people are going to log on to facebook on their phone and those nuisance adds people are going to click, it is going to work? for somebody my age that is a nuisance. it will make me turn away from it. you are telling me people work
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for it? >> the jury is out. facebook is saying there is great engagement with these adds. it may be you find them a nuisance and you get rid of them and you engage with it and the advertiser is happy. a lot of people find these ads better than the ads that float on your smart phone screen. they are mixed but promising. >> to duck tail that and guy is not the one they are targeting i would guess. we had this conversation all the time on "fast money." who is winning the war on mobile? i think you may have answered it which is we don't know. we have been vilifying google and appleal to an extend. >> for 15 years we have been hearing about this massive opportunity on mobile and advertising. every year it is a year away. for 15 years it has been totally
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overhyped. these are native advertisements. they are perfectly designed to be consumed on this device. most of the growth in the internet will be on mobile. we have a billion or two billion people online with pcs. the rest of the growth is mobile. >> good to see you. what was the activity in the pits? >> i think that a lot of long term longs came into the day defensive. they want to stay long but were afraid of what the price action would do. it was a hey look what i found moment for some of the longs. they took the opportunity to puts. more puts than calls traded today. about 450,000 puts traded today around four times the daily average. i think that when you wake up and see the stock up 12% on a day you were afraid to take it
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on the chin that makes a lot of sense particularly if you believe that the fundamental story is turning around and the stock makes sense on a fundamental basis you can buy puts that is what we saw today and that makes a lot of sense. >> let's hit pops and drops today. we kick it off with a pop for a and f. >> it was like it was bought out but it wasn't. way above. you combine that with a short interest and you get that pop. kudos to relational. >> drop for mosaic. >> these guys a month ago said they were around 1.6 tonz and now up 1.3. this is taking things off. i think you can start to nibble. i think this is overdone. >> drop for pulte. >> i think it surprised a lot of people. the sector is a bit extended. i think you probably got a while
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before you can get to the home building stocks. >> popped yesterday on news that it hired jp morgan to pursue strategical alternatives. i don't feel if you are a religious watcher of this show and you are long this stock i have no pity because we have warned you against owning amd for dollars. it is harsh. sometimes you need to hear the truth. >> that's true. >> truth hurts sometimes. >> like love. drop for cboe. >> it would have been down more. trading volume in general is down. option volume is down. so far in the fourth quarter it is down about 1.5%. since the third quarter so a lot of these names will have a tough time. >> and a drop for the dude. it's strike two for amf as the
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largest bowling alley operator has filed for bankruptcy. the company fell into the gutter. >> you write that? >> no. that means the dude will have to find a new place to bowl, drive around and have acid flashbacks. >> what was that a picture of? >> big lebowski. >> makes you more attractive than you already are. coming up next starbucks strikes a deal but is it a good move for share holders. the boss at starbucks giving us all the details. it is a deeper dive into apple. find out why the stock's stumble might not be as troubling as you might think. well, if it isn't mr. margin. mr. margin? don't be modest, bob. you found a better way to pack a bowling ball.
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that was ups. and who called ups? you did, bob. i just asked a question. it takes a long time to pack a bowling ball. the last guy pitched more ball packers. but you... you consulted ups. you found a better way. that's logistics. that's margin. find out what else ups knows. i'll do that. you're on a roll. that's funny. i wasn't being funny, bob. i know. you know, one job or the other. the moment i could access the retirement plan, i just became firm about it -- "i'm done. i'm out of here." you know, it's like it just hits you fast. you know, you start thinking about what's really important here. ♪ ♪
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maybe new buildings? what about updated equipment? they can help, but recent research shows... ... nothing transforms schools like investing in advanced teacher education. let's build a strong foundation. let's invest in our teachers so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. we are pouring through 13 fs and we have a crew here pouring through them. i want to share interesting
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factoids on what we are seeing. first with aig. taking a new stake of 15.2 million shares. aploosa taking in 8.3 million shares. jana partners takes 1.5 million share stakes. a lot of bullishness on aeg. and then consumer goods companies. upping the stake by more than 25%. berkshire cutting by 11%. and loeb takes 5 million share stake in kraft foods and we don't know what he may have done after it became two companies. a aploosa taking new stakes in jpm and ms. more capital in wells fargo and
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jp morgan. moore liquidating his holding in the citi. berkshire cut their stake in j and j by 95%. the take away could mean warren had a stake in that. there is a new stake in precision cast parts. i think the biggest take away right now, guys, is a couple of big names going big. >> also new positions in some of the financials. thanks for giving us the round up on that. you like to watch green light capital. >> really one that looks like he sold sometime during the quarter about 350 odd thousand. that is not the exact number of shares. about a quarter of his apple which still leaves him with a
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very sizable position. i think it is still his biggest or one of his biggest positions. >> that would have been a well time saled. >> it could have been as of september 30. >> we don't know. >> that is when apple hit its all-time high. >> gm adding a lot. >> the brunt of that run was significant in august which was sometime september 11 or 12. i was watching them. it's a name where some of the big boys have been playing. that is why we have been talking about it. let's get to the big deal announced this afternoon. starbucks announcing it will acquire tea vana. joining us on the fast line first on fast is chairman and ceo of starbucks. it is always great to speak with you. >> thank you very much. >> this purchase was a 53%
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premium to yesterday's close and i think a lot of shareholders will ask you why that premium considering tea vana's sales have been falling and this has gone from 46 to 15 now. >> i think the issue is not the premium. the issue is the long-term opportunity. starbucks is buying into a $40 billion category of tea that is right for innovation. we believe we can do for tea what we have done for coffee. let me try to explain it. tea vana has 300 stores that are mall based with sales to an investor ratio of 3 to 1. that is best in class. despite the economics they do not have a beverage business to speak of. we think just like in the mid 80s when we brought an espresso bar and romance of coffee we can
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create a very unique beverage opportunity that will build frequency and loyal customers. second thing is we believe we can leverage the existing best of class real estate acquisition and design capability that starbucks has to build urban neighborhood sites around the country and around the world. and thirdly and i think this is really important on the heels of a record q 4 and record year for starbucks in terms of the strength of our business one of the underlying capabilities we have is social and digital media starbucks card and loyalty program and the strongest mobile commerce payment business in the retail business. we will thread those benefits to tea vana consumers driving awareness.
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lastly, we are in 61 countries around the world. this is a $40 billion category. we believe that we can leverage our existing partnerships and create tea vana stores outside of north america. ironically tea vana is knocking them dead already in the middle east and our gulf. it is not about the premium. it is about the long term opportunity to significant accelerate and grow this business at a time when we are firing on all cylinders. >> what happens to tazo? what happens to those plans and is there any rationalization of the 300 outlets in terms of real estate? >> i think the question about tazo is inside starbucks is a billion dollar brand. we believe that tea vana does not have a cpg business, another
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big opportunity for starbucks since we are already in about 100,000 points of distribution in north america. over time we will create a two tier strategy in which tea vana and tazo wilco and -- will co-exist. we can create a beverage bar that will create traffic. we will create starbucks benefits and over time create a cpg business. >> how big do you think that tea vana consumer products business could be? >> i couldn't say today but we are buying a business today that is in its early stages with stunning unit economics. once it is powered by starbucks capability we are talking about a huge opportunity domestically and internationally. >> are you going to keep all of
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those tea vana stores open? >> we believe in the brand. those stores will stay open absolutely. with economics like that why would you consider closing them? >> if there is a starbucks next door. >> the starbucks customer and the tea vana customer are two different customers and two different needs that are highly complimentary. the two will completely coexist. the tea vana store and the starbucks store will not be attached or linked together. >> always great to speak with you. thanks so much. >> thanks so much. >> after acquiring tea vana. in terms of the premium, howard made a point of saying it is future growth. the forward has been declining. share holders have been getting skeptical of the story and it is trading below the ipo. espress
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espresso machine into a coffee shop. if he was running this company it would probably be creating at this already. >> did you see expresso or espresso? >> i said espresso. >> you can pay an awfully high multiple. apple has been falling from grace since hitting its high. have investors been getting the stock all wrong. we will go deeper with top rated analysts. stick around to find out why you might want to think coke when it comes to apple. ♪ [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office,
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we are live at the nasdaq market site. is apple the new coke. the recent fall of more than 20% from the high may be the biggest indicator that the days of hype
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bolic growth are over we did this comparison today compared to coke. is apple the great new value play. let's welcome analyst. always great to speak with you. >> happy to be here. >> sounds like it might have to get ratcheted back a bit. >> i think apple is going through a transition. the last couple of quarters it has grown earnings a little above 20% much more mortal. and i think when you have a company this big it is going to go $200 billion in annual revenues next year. it is impossible to continue growing at that rate. it is going to be a more transitional growth company we think with a great consumer brand and with great products. >> the valuation is low.
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>> we think the valuation has made those juadjustments. part of what you are seeing is the valuation overrun here to the down side. it has been compounded by the fact that we have a lot of year end selling. you have had investors locking gains. there has been an absence of a near term catalyst. as you have this rotation i think you do see pressure on the multiple. my guess is that change in share holderer base stabilizes you might see apple's multiple improve a little bit from here going forward. >> i would love to see apple's multiple improve. i think you had hoped they would do something with capital allegation. however this management team seems like it is beneath them to
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focus on the share price of the stock. what gives you hope that that might happen? >> there was that sentiment a year and a half ago that apple had never returned any of its cash. at the beginning of this year they did announce they would be paying a dividend. and that they would be buying back shares. the company has taken a big step in the last 12 months. my belief is with with $120 billion in cash the company and the company generating and adding to its cash balance each year even after paying dividend that it would make sense for the company to look to return more of that cash to investors. the constraint they have is that most of the cash is offshore. so one vehicle for getting more on shore cash is prevailing very low interest rates. >> tony joining us.
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coke trades at a higher multiple. >> you get to a place where different businesses but coke has to find other ways. and deliver 10 plus percent. apple is going to do that. people have expectations of growth that they can't live up to. >> let's get out to jane wells because she has a look at what is coming up next. >> up next the upside of boring and why you should never short kevin bacon not just because his last name is bacon. with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying...
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and ink helps us do it. make your mark with ink from chase. it is three hours earlier on the west coast where they are getting up from a long night of changing the world. jane wells rngs what does that mean? >> it means we work all the time. >> yeah, right. >> one very important person in california reportedly once said we want to be the most predictable boring growth company. analysts did not predict growth last summer.
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the company has had double digit profit growth for four quarters in a row. is boring back? >> is boring back? >> i think you buy cisco more than sell juniper. now you have somewhat of a floor in the stock around the $17 level. john chambers has executed in a very tough environment. >> next a it is hip to be square. the payment company announced on twitter it has hit $10 billion in processed payments before starbucks starts using square. starbucks will add 6 billion more a year so you can use square to buy your tea vana tea. >> we can't trade square because it is not public. to us veri phone.
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we have been short. pay anywhere. tons of them. >> celebrity trades. >> first go long channing tatum. i have been accumulating tatum calls for a long time. it is one of my best investments. take profits on the beebe. justin bieber pulled over by police driving a ferrari. he broke up with his girlfriend so expect volatility in the near term. you can never go wrong investing in one californian. kevin bacon all stories lead to him. we discover the six degrees through kevin bacon. the two biggest stories this week. general petraeus links to kevin bacon leads to her starring role in the closer which leads to john mcaffee. >> he claims to be a new yorker.
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we want to take credit for kevin bacon here. >> do we? >> his wife works for the lapd on the closer. >> i will tell you where it all leads to, jane wells. you should check that out. see you tomorrow. >> all right. coming up next trading what is trending on twitter. en i first , i put away money. i was 21, so i said, "hmm, i want to retire at 55." and before you know it, i'm 58 years old. time went by very fast. it goes by too, too fast. ♪ but i would do it again in a heartbeat. [ laughs ] ♪ ♪ looking for a better place to put your cash? here's one you may not have thought of -- fidelity.
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welcome back to "fast money." a house subcommittee on oversight and investigation set to release the report tomorrow with the republicans pitting most of the blame of the failure of mf global on corzine. steven goldberg saying he did not act in bad faith or engage in intentional wrong doing continuing to say all decisions were approved by the board and within the limits set by the board and taking issue with the fact that reportedly will say
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that customers have not received a billion dollars that was lost. customers have received about 80% of that money. remember that report is said to be released tomorrow at 9:30. >> thanks for that. shares of yahoo touching a fresh 52-week high today. what are options traders doing with it? >> on monday steve grasso and i professed our mutual love for yahoo. the fact that the stock was only down two cents today was impressive. we saw a call by one buying who bought 2,500 of the jan 1 calls. they are breaking even at the 20.20. when you are getting into fresh ground defining your risk by buying calls makes a lot of sense. >> let's see to seema mody tracking the twitter fear. >> facebook is the big story.
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if you have been checking your twitter feed you might have been able to catch the rally. jc tweeted yesterday with thousands of articles being written about a facebook selloff on expiring lock ups wouldn't it be hilarious if facebook rallied instead. everyone thought it would be down. the question is as paul points out in this tweet does the rally that we saw today have legs? the rally post earnings didn't hold. take a look at the chart. facebook reported on october 23 shares rose and then moved lower. can i hold this level and move higher from here? >> we are using kids dynamite logic. >> you would be surprised. twitter is right. if you would have checked the feed, perhaps. >> we have to give love to mr. carney. >> art carney? >> yesterday wrote this exact scenario unfolding. a call by him.
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>> and to steve grasso. >> that goes without saying. >> didn't we mention that earlier? >> we did. >> thanks for dropping by. it is time for the moment you have been waiting for, trade of the day. what is it? >> trade of the day there is a fiscal cliff that was resolved yesterday or last evening in japan. they voted to extend the fiscal cliff by issuing more debt and were going to sell more yen. the way to play this i think is dxj, a way to be long japanese stocks and short japanese yen at the same time. when you have a lot of money printing you have an inflation target of 2% to 3%. that is generally good for japanese stocks. this is a great way to get into it. >> tim? >> japan the more the yen weakens there are a lot of great
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dividend plays. >> meantime cramer has surprises coming up. a pair of recent earnings reports and wall street and all. there could be more reason to celebrate. get the names that could belong on your shopping list in the next hour. very big day for facebook. will wall street like the shares tomorrow? don't miss cramer's take coming right up here on cnbc. [ male announcer ] trading's like a high-speed train. and you don't want to miss it with thinkorswim by td ameritrade. you get knock-your-socks-off tools, simple one-click orders, real-time paper trading to hone your skills, plus anytime you need it support. ♪ stocks, options, futures, and forex. get your trading on track. thinkorswim by td ameritrade. trade commission free for 60 days, plus get up to $600 when you open an account.
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i always wait until the last minute.
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can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
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final trade let's go around. >> option volume in netflix has trailed off. that means option markets sees no deal getting done. take your profits. >> stay short the ewz. >> precision cast parts. >> i love jamie dimon which i normally say gratuitously. >> brian christopher. >> two things. let's be careful out there. it is a dangerous market right now. >> touching. >> anyway. co

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